Monitoring of important changes in relation to the future development of the environment in the Czech Republic

As part of the SEEPIA project, two studies regarding monitoring of important changes and future development of the environment in the Czech Republic were created.

The aim of the first study was to identify global megatrends (GMT) and their driving forces, i.e. their influencing factors, and further to describe their expected impact on the environment. The links and influence of global megatrends on the defined pillars of the European Green Deal (climate, agriculture, energy, industry, transport, etc.) are presented here. The study presents an outline of the primary areas on which future scenarios of environmental development in the Czech Republic should focus. The scenarios are one of the main outputs of the SEEPIA project.

GMT are large-scale social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes. They have the potential to significantly influence current processes directly related to the development of the environment in the Czech Republic. Global megatrends include population ageing, migration, urbanization, climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem change, increasing demand for water, food and land, technological change and many others.

One of the methods used to identify future development trends is Horizon Scanning (HS). The general principles and procedures of the HS are presented in the second study. Also prerequisites for increasing the effectiveness and usability of HS results are presented and connections and problems that should be solved during foresight activities are described here.

Horizon scanning is a method used for identifying potentially important changes through the systematic examination of trends, signals, opportunities and threats and their impacts on the domain of choice. It can help with defining strategic knowledge for policy making.

An analysis of the contextual framework of the environment in the Czech Republic is available (only in Czech) here.

An analysis of current horizon scanning systems is available (only in Czech) here.