We published a study in which we developed climate change scenarios for the Czech Republic based on the results of two generations of climate models (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and analyzed structural uncertainty of these climate simulations.
In the current study, the researchers focused on projected changes in long-term monthly means and inter-annual variability of monthly mean minimum, mean and maximum daily air temperature and monthly mean precipitation.
The results show that in the Central Europe we can expect a decrease of summer precipitation and a slight increase of winter precipitation, projected air temperature increase is higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. Projections for the end of the 21st century also indicate a higher likelihood of dry summer periods, higher precipitation amounts in the cold half of the year and extremely high summer temperatures.
Further, the results reveal that when constructing climate change scenarios for the Central European region, attention should be paid to the uncertainty represented by differences between models and scenario uncertainty, but also to the influence of internal climate variability.
The study was published in a scientific journal. Full text in English here.
Text: Milan Ščasný, Iva Zvěřinová, Zuzana Rajchlová